Quevilly 0–1 Bastia: Result & Stats | Ligue 2

Quevilly

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Bastia

M. Alfarela 23'

2/10/2024

Ligue 2 · Round 24Stade Robert Diochon

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Quevilly40%

×Draw27%

Bastia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QuevillyExpected goals in this matchBastia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.15

Quevilly

1.29

Bastia

1.15

Quevilly creates 12% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 91 away

1.24

creates per match

1.03

1.27

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Quevilly

1.24

Bastia

1.03

allows per match

Quevilly

1.27

Bastia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quevilly+0.00on par

Bastia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quevilly ↓

Bastia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quevilly or draw

67%

Quevilly or Bastia

73%

Draw or Bastia

60%

Winning margin

Quevilly wins by 2+

18%

Bastia wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Quevilly 1+ goals

72%

Quevilly 2+ goals

37%

Quevilly 3+ goals

14%

Bastia 1+ goals

68%

Bastia 2+ goals

32%

Bastia 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quevilly (draw refunded)

55%

Bastia (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quevilly at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.27 · 59 matches

Bastia away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.33 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quevilly attack 1.24 + Bastia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.29

Bastia attack 1.03 + Quevilly defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quevilly scores more

40%

level

27%

Bastia scores more

33%

Quevilly at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Quevilly will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

M. Alfarela

Bastia · F

7.7

Match Events

23'

M. Alfarela

30'

Jason Pendant

46'

K. Coulibaly← M. Camara

58'

Logan Delaurier-Chaubet

60'

Tom Ducrocq

61'

Florian Bianchini

61'

P. Yade← L. Delaurier-Chaubet

62'

Alpha Sissoko

65'

B. Santelli← C. Vincent

71'

Cheick Keita

71'

M. Siby← G. Charbonnier

77'

P. Sakho← D. Poha

80'

Sambou Soumano

83'

Dylan Tavares← F. Bohnert

84'

A. Roncaglia← J. Janneh

84'

T. Meynadier← C. Traoré

88'

Pape Ousmane Sakho

89'

G. Sangaré← N. Cadiou

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QuevillyBastia

Overview

54%Possession46%

5Total Shots13

7Corners4

12Fouls8

Shots

5Total Shots13

3On Target3

2Off Target6

0Blocked4

3Inside Box7

2Outside Box6

Passing

54%Possession46%

472Total Passes401

375Accurate Passes313

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls8

4Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

2Offsides3