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Bastia vs Quevilly — Ligue 2 2018

Bastia
Bastia
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quevilly
Quevilly
12/16/2023Ligue 2Ligue 2 · Round 18Stade Armand-Césari

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

Bastia43%
×Draw28%
Quevilly29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bastia
1.29
Quevilly
1.02

Bastia creates 26% more chances

Season form · 90 home / 58 away

creates per match

Bastia
1.18
Quevilly
1.10

allows per match

Bastia
0.93
Quevilly
1.41

finishing

Bastia+0.00on par
Quevilly+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bastia ↓

Quevilly →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Bastia or draw
71%
Bastia or Quevilly
72%
Draw or Quevilly
57%

Winning margin

Bastia wins by 2+
19%
Quevilly wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Bastia 1+ goals
72%
Bastia 2+ goals
37%
Bastia 3+ goals
14%
Quevilly 1+ goals
64%
Quevilly 2+ goals
27%
Quevilly 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Bastia (draw refunded)
59%
Quevilly (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bastia at home — creates 1.18, concedes 0.93 · 90 matches

Quevilly away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.41 · 58 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bastia attack 1.18 + Quevilly defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.29

Quevilly attack 1.10 + Bastia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Bastia scores more
43%
level
28%
Quevilly scores more
29%

Bastia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Bastia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22
S. LoricQuevillyQuevilly · D
7.9

Match Events

23'
Noah Cadiou
32'
Dylan Tavares← C. Traoré
34'
Gustavo Sangaré
53'
Steven Fortès← T. Cissokho
61'
F. Conte← K. Djoco
75'
A. Do Marcolino← K. Coulibaly
75'
L. Delaurier-Chaubet← M. Camara
78'
F. Tomi← C. Vincent
78'
F. Bianchini← M. Alfarela
80'
Alan Do Marcolino
90+1'
P. Yade← G. Gbellé

Possession

49%Bastia

Shots

4Bastia

Pass accuracy

50%Bastia

Statistics

BastiaQuevilly
Overview
49%Possession51%
4Total Shots13
2Corners6
12Fouls16
Shots
4Total Shots13
1On Target3
2Off Target5
1Blocked5
2Inside Box11
2Outside Box2
Passing
49%Possession51%
402Total Passes404
286Accurate Passes289
71%Pass Accuracy72%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
12Fouls16
0Yellow Cards3
2Offsides3

Ligue 2: Bastia 0–0 Quevilly

Bastia and Quevilly drew 0-0 in Ligue 2 on December 16, 2023.

Quevilly controlled possession (51%) and registered 13 shots to 4.

The match was played at Stade Armand-Césari in Furiani.