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Quepos Cambute vs Puerto Golfito — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
CANC
21:00
Puerto Golfito
Puerto Golfito
3/24/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 16

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Quepos Cambute61%
×Draw21%
Puerto Golfito18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quepos Cambute
1.97
Puerto Golfito
0.96

Quepos Cambute creates 105% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 84 away

creates per match

Quepos Cambute
1.94
Puerto Golfito
0.92

allows per match

Quepos Cambute
1.00
Puerto Golfito
2.01

finishing

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par
Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quepos Cambute ↓

Puerto Golfito →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Quepos Cambute or draw
82%
Quepos Cambute or Puerto Golfito
79%
Draw or Puerto Golfito
39%

Winning margin

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
36%
Puerto Golfito wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
86%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
58%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
31%
Puerto Golfito 1+ goals
62%
Puerto Golfito 2+ goals
25%
Puerto Golfito 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
77%
Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quepos Cambute at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Puerto Golfito away — creates 0.92, concedes 2.01 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quepos Cambute attack 1.94 + Puerto Golfito defence 2.01 → ÷2 → 1.97

Puerto Golfito attack 0.92 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Quepos Cambute scores more
61%
level
21%
Puerto Golfito scores more
18%

Quepos Cambute at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Quepos Cambute host Puerto Golfito

March 24, 2024: Quepos Cambute take on Puerto Golfito in Liga de Ascenso. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.