Puerto Golfito 1–4 Quepos Cambute: Result & Stats

Puerto Golfito

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 0

Quepos Cambute

4/9/2023

Liga de Ascenso · Clausura - 18Estadio Fortunato Atencio

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Puerto Golfito37%

×Draw23%

Quepos Cambute40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puerto GolfitoExpected goals in this matchQuepos Cambute

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.66

Puerto Golfito

1.58

Quepos Cambute

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 87 home / 71 away

1.36

creates per match

1.59

1.72

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Puerto Golfito

1.36

Quepos Cambute

1.59

allows per match

Puerto Golfito

1.72

Quepos Cambute

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puerto Golfito+0.00on par

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puerto Golfito ↓

Quepos Cambute →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Puerto Golfito or draw

60%

Puerto Golfito or Quepos Cambute

77%

Draw or Quepos Cambute

63%

Winning margin

Puerto Golfito wins by 2+

18%

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Puerto Golfito 1+ goals

79%

Puerto Golfito 2+ goals

47%

Puerto Golfito 3+ goals

21%

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

81%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

49%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Puerto Golfito (draw refunded)

48%

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puerto Golfito at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.72 · 87 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puerto Golfito attack 1.36 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.58

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Puerto Golfito defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Puerto Golfito scores more

37%

level

23%

Quepos Cambute scores more

40%

Quepos Cambute at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff