Quepos Cambute 4–0 Limón Black Star: Result & Stats

Quepos Cambute

FT

4 – 0

Limón Black Star

11/6/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Municipal de Parrita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Quepos Cambute47%

×Draw25%

Limón Black Star28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quepos CambuteExpected goals in this matchLimón Black Star

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.17

Quepos Cambute

1.58

Limón Black Star

1.17

Quepos Cambute creates 35% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 36 away

1.94

creates per match

1.33

1.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Quepos Cambute

1.94

Limón Black Star

1.33

allows per match

Quepos Cambute

1.00

Limón Black Star

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Limón Black Star+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quepos Cambute ↓

Limón Black Star →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Quepos Cambute or draw

72%

Quepos Cambute or Limón Black Star

75%

Draw or Limón Black Star

53%

Winning margin

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

24%

Limón Black Star wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

79%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

47%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

21%

Limón Black Star 1+ goals

69%

Limón Black Star 2+ goals

33%

Limón Black Star 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

62%

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quepos Cambute at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Limón Black Star away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quepos Cambute attack 1.94 + Limón Black Star defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.58

Limón Black Star attack 1.33 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Quepos Cambute scores more

47%

level

25%

Limón Black Star scores more

28%

Quepos Cambute at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff