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Limón Black Star vs Quepos Cambute — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Limón Black Star
Limón Black Staradvanced
FT
5 – 3
Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
11/13/2022Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - Quarter-finalsEstadio Juan Gobán Quirós

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Limón Black Star43%
×Draw24%
Quepos Cambute33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limón Black Star
1.67
Quepos Cambute
1.44

Limón Black Star creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 71 away

creates per match

Limón Black Star
1.54
Quepos Cambute
1.59

allows per match

Limón Black Star
1.29
Quepos Cambute
1.79

finishing

Limón Black Star+0.00on par
Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limón Black Star ↓

Quepos Cambute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Limón Black Star or draw
67%
Limón Black Star or Quepos Cambute
76%
Draw or Quepos Cambute
57%

Winning margin

Limón Black Star wins by 2+
22%
Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Limón Black Star 1+ goals
81%
Limón Black Star 2+ goals
50%
Limón Black Star 3+ goals
23%
Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
76%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
42%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Limón Black Star (draw refunded)
56%
Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limón Black Star at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.29 · 35 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limón Black Star attack 1.54 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.67

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Limón Black Star defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Limón Black Star scores more
43%
level
24%
Quepos Cambute scores more
33%

Limón Black Star at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Limón Black Star will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Limón Black Star vs Quepos Cambute

Limón Black Star beat Quepos Cambute 5-3 in Liga de Ascenso on November 13, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Gobán Quirós in Limón.