Quepos Cambute 3–1 AS Puma Generalena

Quepos Cambute

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

AS Puma Generalena

9/25/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 13Estadio Municipal de Parrita

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Quepos Cambute60%

×Draw22%

AS Puma Generalena18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quepos CambuteExpected goals in this matchAS Puma Generalena

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

0.96

Quepos Cambute

1.94

AS Puma Generalena

0.96

Quepos Cambute creates 102% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 74 away

1.94

creates per match

0.92

1.00

allows per match

1.93

creates per match

Quepos Cambute

1.94

AS Puma Generalena

0.92

allows per match

Quepos Cambute

1.00

AS Puma Generalena

1.93

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quepos Cambute ↓

AS Puma Generalena →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Quepos Cambute or draw

82%

Quepos Cambute or AS Puma Generalena

78%

Draw or AS Puma Generalena

40%

Winning margin

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

36%

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

86%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

58%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

30%

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

62%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

25%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

77%

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quepos Cambute at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

AS Puma Generalena away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.93 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quepos Cambute attack 1.94 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.93 → ÷2 → 1.94

AS Puma Generalena attack 0.92 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Quepos Cambute scores more

60%

level

22%

AS Puma Generalena scores more

18%

Quepos Cambute at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff