AS Puma Generalena 2–3 Quepos Cambute

AS Puma Generalena

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Quepos Cambute

8/7/2022

Liga de Ascenso · Apertura - 2Estadio Rafael Bolaños

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

AS Puma Generalena39%

×Draw24%

Quepos Cambute37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AS Puma GeneralenaExpected goals in this matchQuepos Cambute

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

1.48

AS Puma Generalena

1.54

Quepos Cambute

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 76 home / 71 away

1.28

creates per match

1.59

1.36

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.28

Quepos Cambute

1.59

allows per match

AS Puma Generalena

1.36

Quepos Cambute

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

AS Puma Generalena+0.00on par

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

AS Puma Generalena ↓

Quepos Cambute →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

AS Puma Generalena or draw

63%

AS Puma Generalena or Quepos Cambute

76%

Draw or Quepos Cambute

61%

Winning margin

AS Puma Generalena wins by 2+

19%

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

AS Puma Generalena 1+ goals

79%

AS Puma Generalena 2+ goals

45%

AS Puma Generalena 3+ goals

20%

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals

77%

Quepos Cambute 2+ goals

43%

Quepos Cambute 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

AS Puma Generalena (draw refunded)

52%

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

AS Puma Generalena at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.36 · 76 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

AS Puma Generalena attack 1.28 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.54

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + AS Puma Generalena defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

AS Puma Generalena scores more

39%

level

24%

Quepos Cambute scores more

37%

AS Puma Generalena at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "AS Puma Generalena will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff