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Quepos Cambute vs Antioquia — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
FT
2 – 1
Antioquia
Antioquia
3/16/2024Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Clausura - 14Estadio de Damas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Quepos Cambute57%
×Draw22%
Antioquia21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quepos Cambute
1.94
Antioquia
1.08

Quepos Cambute creates 80% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 32 away

creates per match

Quepos Cambute
1.94
Antioquia
1.16

allows per match

Quepos Cambute
1.00
Antioquia
1.94

finishing

Quepos Cambute+0.00on par
Antioquia+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quepos Cambute ↓

Antioquia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Quepos Cambute or draw
79%
Quepos Cambute or Antioquia
78%
Draw or Antioquia
43%

Winning margin

Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
34%
Antioquia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
86%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
58%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
30%
Antioquia 1+ goals
66%
Antioquia 2+ goals
29%
Antioquia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
73%
Antioquia (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quepos Cambute at home — creates 1.94, concedes 1.00 · 71 matches

Antioquia away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.94 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quepos Cambute attack 1.94 + Antioquia defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.94

Antioquia attack 1.16 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Quepos Cambute scores more
57%
level
22%
Antioquia scores more
21%

Quepos Cambute at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Quepos Cambute will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quepos Cambute vs Antioquia

Quepos Cambute beat Antioquia 2-1 in Liga de Ascenso on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio de Damas in Quepos.