Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Antioquia vs Quepos Cambute — Liga de Ascenso 2018

Antioquia
Antioquia
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Quepos Cambute
Quepos Cambute
10/8/2023Liga de AscensoLiga de Ascenso · Apertura - 14Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Antioquia39%
×Draw23%
Quepos Cambute38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Antioquia
1.63
Quepos Cambute
1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 71 away

creates per match

Antioquia
1.47
Quepos Cambute
1.59

allows per match

Antioquia
1.63
Quepos Cambute
1.79

finishing

Antioquia+0.00on par
Quepos Cambute+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Antioquia ↓

Quepos Cambute →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Antioquia or draw
62%
Antioquia or Quepos Cambute
77%
Draw or Quepos Cambute
61%

Winning margin

Antioquia wins by 2+
19%
Quepos Cambute wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Antioquia 1+ goals
80%
Antioquia 2+ goals
48%
Antioquia 3+ goals
22%
Quepos Cambute 1+ goals
80%
Quepos Cambute 2+ goals
48%
Quepos Cambute 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Antioquia (draw refunded)
51%
Quepos Cambute (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Antioquia at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.63 · 32 matches

Quepos Cambute away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.79 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Antioquia attack 1.47 + Quepos Cambute defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.63

Quepos Cambute attack 1.59 + Antioquia defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Antioquia scores more
39%
level
23%
Quepos Cambute scores more
38%

Antioquia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Antioquia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga de Ascenso: Antioquia 2–2 Quepos Cambute

Antioquia and Quepos Cambute drew 2-2 in Liga de Ascenso on October 8, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal El Labrador de Coronado in San Jose.