Queen of the South 3–3 Motherwell: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

Pens

3 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Motherwell

7/18/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 3Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South34%

×Draw24%

Motherwell42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchMotherwell

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.60

Queen of the South

1.40

Motherwell

1.60

Motherwell creates 14% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 14 away

2.00

creates per match

1.71

1.50

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Queen of the South

2.00

Motherwell

1.71

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.50

Motherwell

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Motherwell+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Motherwell →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

58%

Queen of the South or Motherwell

76%

Draw or Motherwell

66%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

15%

Motherwell wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

75%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

41%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

17%

Motherwell 1+ goals

80%

Motherwell 2+ goals

47%

Motherwell 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

44%

Motherwell (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

Motherwell away — creates 1.71, concedes 0.79 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + Motherwell defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Motherwell attack 1.71 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Queen of the South scores more

34%

level

24%

Motherwell scores more

42%

Motherwell at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Queen of the South vs Motherwell

Queen of the South and Motherwell drew 3-3 in League Cup on July 18, 2023.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.

Queen of the South vs Motherwell — League Cup 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Queen of the South vs Motherwell