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Motherwell vs Queen of the South — League Cup 2018

Motherwell
Motherwell
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Queen of the South
Queen of the South
7/17/2021League CupLeague Cup · Group Stage - 4Fir Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Motherwell45%
×Draw23%
Queen of the South32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Motherwell
1.77
Queen of the South
1.46

Motherwell creates 21% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 15 away

creates per match

Motherwell
2.33
Queen of the South
1.93

allows per match

Motherwell
1.00
Queen of the South
1.20

finishing

Motherwell+0.00on par
Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Motherwell ↓

Queen of the South →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Motherwell or draw
68%
Motherwell or Queen of the South
77%
Draw or Queen of the South
55%

Winning margin

Motherwell wins by 2+
24%
Queen of the South wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Motherwell 1+ goals
83%
Motherwell 2+ goals
53%
Motherwell 3+ goals
26%
Queen of the South 1+ goals
77%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
43%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Motherwell (draw refunded)
58%
Queen of the South (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Motherwell at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.00 · 18 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.20 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Motherwell attack 2.33 + Queen of the South defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.77

Queen of the South attack 1.93 + Motherwell defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Motherwell scores more
45%
level
23%
Queen of the South scores more
32%

Motherwell at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Motherwell will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Motherwell vs Queen of the South

Motherwell beat Queen of the South 3-2 in League Cup on July 17, 2021.

The match was played at Fir Park in Motherwell.