Queen of the South 2–2 East Fife: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

East Fife

3/21/2026

League #183 · Round 30Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Queen of the South53%

×Draw24%

East Fife23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

Queen of the South

1.69

East Fife

1.04

Queen of the South creates 63% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 27 away

1.78

creates per match

0.93

1.15

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Queen of the South

1.78

East Fife

0.93

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.15

East Fife

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

77%

Queen of the South or East Fife

76%

Draw or East Fife

47%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

28%

East Fife wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

82%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

50%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

24%

East Fife 1+ goals

65%

East Fife 2+ goals

28%

East Fife 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

69%

East Fife (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.59 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.78 + East Fife defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.69

East Fife attack 0.93 + Queen of the South defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Queen of the South scores more

53%

level

24%

East Fife scores more

23%

Queen of the South at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff