Queen of the South 0–0 East Fife: Result & Stats

Queen of the South

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

East Fife

7/25/2023

League Cup · Group Stage - 6Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Queen of the South66%

×Draw19%

East Fife15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Queen of the SouthExpected goals in this matchEast Fife

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.25

0.96

Queen of the South

2.25

East Fife

0.96

Queen of the South creates 134% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

2.00

creates per match

0.42

1.50

allows per match

2.50

creates per match

Queen of the South

2.00

East Fife

0.42

allows per match

Queen of the South

1.50

East Fife

2.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par

East Fife+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

East Fife →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw

85%

Queen of the South or East Fife

81%

Draw or East Fife

34%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+

43%

East Fife wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals

89%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

65%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

39%

East Fife 1+ goals

62%

East Fife 2+ goals

25%

East Fife 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

82%

East Fife (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

East Fife away — creates 0.42, concedes 2.50 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 2.00 + East Fife defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.25

East Fife attack 0.42 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Queen of the South scores more

66%

level

19%

East Fife scores more

15%

Queen of the South at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff