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Queen of the South vs Dunfermline — League #180 2026

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Dunfermline
Dunfermline
2/24/2018League #180League #180 · Round 26Palmerston Park (Dumfries)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Queen of the South39%
×Draw30%
Dunfermline31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
1.14
Dunfermline
0.99

Queen of the South creates 15% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 39 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
1.05
Dunfermline
1.08

allows per match

Queen of the South
0.90
Dunfermline
1.23

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Dunfermline+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Dunfermline →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
69%
Queen of the South or Dunfermline
70%
Draw or Dunfermline
61%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
16%
Dunfermline wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
68%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
32%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
11%
Dunfermline 1+ goals
63%
Dunfermline 2+ goals
26%
Dunfermline 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
55%
Dunfermline (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Dunfermline away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.05 + Dunfermline defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.14

Dunfermline attack 1.08 + Queen of the South defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Queen of the South scores more
39%
level
30%
Dunfermline scores more
31%

Queen of the South at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #180: Queen of the South 0–0 Dunfermline

Queen of the South and Dunfermline drew 0-0 in League #180 on February 24, 2018.

The match was played at Palmerston Park (Dumfries).