Dunfermline 2–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Queen of the South

C. Kane 15', 7'

J. Tod 4' (OG)

11/29/2025

FA Cup · Round of 64East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunfermline58%

×Draw23%

Queen of the South19%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

0.95

Dunfermline

1.82

Queen of the South

0.95

Dunfermline creates 92% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.14

creates per match

1.33

0.57

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.14

Queen of the South

1.33

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.57

Queen of the South

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

81%

Dunfermline or Queen of the South

77%

Draw or Queen of the South

42%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

33%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

84%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

54%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

27%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

61%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

25%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

75%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.14, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.14 + Queen of the South defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.82

Queen of the South attack 1.33 + Dunfermline defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Dunfermline scores more

58%

level

23%

Queen of the South scores more

19%

Dunfermline at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

J. TodOwn goal

7'

C. Kane↳ K. Bray

11'

15'

19'

45'

61'

C. Gilmour← C. Hamilton

61'

A. Amade← T. Oakley-Boothe

66'

K. Bray

71'

K. Ritchie-Hosler← K. Bray

71'

J. Caceres← C. Kane

73'

J. Stott← B. Dickenson

88'

B. Gray← L. Smith

90+3'

E. Otoo← J. Tod

Dunfermline

Queen

1

16

5

15

3

8

4

7

▼

Smith

11

▼

10

28

40

2

18

31

🥅

▼

Tod

10

Todd

5

▼

Hamilton

35

▼

Oakley-Bo

47

Fraser

22

A

▼

Bray

20

⚽2

▼

Kane

26

Tod

Manager: Neil Lennon

61'▲C. Gilmour←▼C. Hamilton

61'▲A. Amade←▼T. Oakley-Boothe

71'▲K. Ritchie-Hosler←▼K. Bray

71'▲J. Caceres←▼C. Kane

90+3'▲E. Otoo←▼J. Tod

Dunfermline substitutes

1Mehmet6Otoo7Ritchie-Hosler8Gilmour12Caceres14Amade15Fisher16MacLeod34Fyfe

Manager: Peter Murphy

73'▲J. Stott←▼B. Dickenson

88'▲B. Gray←▼L. Smith

Queen of the South substitutes

26Green6Hannah14Johnstone18Stott21Ross27Gray

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Queen of the South

Dunfermline beat Queen of the South 2-1 in FA Cup on November 29, 2025.

Goals: J. Tod (4' o.g.), C. Kane (7', 15').

The match was played at East End Park in Dunfermline.

Dunfermline vs Queen of the South — FA Cup 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Dunfermline vs Queen of the South