Dunfermline 1–1 Queen of the South: Result & Stats

Dunfermline

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Queen of the South

N. Todorov 67'

R. Paton 45'

12/3/2022

League #183 · Round 17East End Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Dunfermline53%

×Draw23%

Queen of the South25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DunfermlineExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.89

1.23

Dunfermline

1.89

Queen of the South

1.23

Dunfermline creates 54% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 29 away

2.29

creates per match

1.59

0.86

allows per match

1.48

creates per match

Dunfermline

2.29

Queen of the South

1.59

allows per match

Dunfermline

0.86

Queen of the South

1.48

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Dunfermline+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunfermline ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Dunfermline or draw

75%

Dunfermline or Queen of the South

77%

Draw or Queen of the South

47%

Winning margin

Dunfermline wins by 2+

30%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Dunfermline 1+ goals

85%

Dunfermline 2+ goals

56%

Dunfermline 3+ goals

29%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

71%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

35%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Dunfermline (draw refunded)

68%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunfermline at home — creates 2.29, concedes 0.86 · 7 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.48 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunfermline attack 2.29 + Queen of the South defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.89

Queen of the South attack 1.59 + Dunfermline defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Dunfermline scores more

53%

level

23%

Queen of the South scores more

25%

Dunfermline at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Dunfermline will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

R. Paton↳ L. Connelly

53'

N. Todorov← S. Fisher

65'

H. Cochrane← L. Connelly

67'

N. Todorov↳ A. Comrie

74'

C. McKenna

74'

C. Hamilton← C. Mochrie

74'

C. Murray← L. Gibson

82'

J. Edwards

85'

K. MacDonald← K. Ritchie-Hosler

86'

H. Cochrane

87'

M. Currie

Dunfermline

Queen

1

17

5

2

12

8

4

9

10

A

▼

Connelly

7

⚽

Paton

27

▼

Gibson

1

Mehmet

4

Benedictu

2

A

Comrie

12

Breen

3

Edwards

15

▼

Fisher

8

Chalmers

26

Todd

21

▼

Ritchie-H

11

▼

Mochrie

9

Wighton

Manager: J. McPake

53'▲N. Todorov←▼S. Fisher

74'▲C. Hamilton←▼C. Mochrie

85'▲K. MacDonald←▼K. Ritchie-Hosler

Dunfermline substitutes

10Todorov5Hamilton6MacDonald31Hoggan20Little27Young28Tod29Sutherland30Mahon

Manager: W. Gibson

65'▲H. Cochrane←▼L. Connelly

74'▲C. Murray←▼L. Gibson

Queen of the South substitutes

6Cochrane11Murray22Bange15McGrory43Henderson18McKechnie21McMahon20Irving19Ruth