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Queen of the South vs Airdrie United — League #183 2026

Queen of the South
Queen of the South
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Airdrie United
Airdrie United
3/4/2023League #183League #183 · Round 27Palmerston Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Queen of the South38%
×Draw24%
Airdrie United38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Queen of the South
1.60
Airdrie United
1.59

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 4 away

creates per match

Queen of the South
1.95
Airdrie United
2.00

allows per match

Queen of the South
1.18
Airdrie United
1.25

finishing

Queen of the South+0.00on par
Airdrie United+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Queen of the South ↓

Airdrie United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Queen of the South or draw
62%
Queen of the South or Airdrie United
76%
Draw or Airdrie United
62%

Winning margin

Queen of the South wins by 2+
19%
Airdrie United wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Queen of the South 1+ goals
80%
Queen of the South 2+ goals
47%
Queen of the South 3+ goals
22%
Airdrie United 1+ goals
80%
Airdrie United 2+ goals
47%
Airdrie United 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Queen of the South (draw refunded)
50%
Airdrie United (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Queen of the South at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.18 · 22 matches

Airdrie United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Queen of the South attack 1.95 + Airdrie United defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.60

Airdrie United attack 2.00 + Queen of the South defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Queen of the South scores more
38%
level
24%
Airdrie United scores more
38%

Queen of the South at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Queen of the South will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #183: Queen of the South 3–2 Airdrie United

Queen of the South beat Airdrie United 3-2 in League #183 on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Palmerston Park in Dumfries.