Airdrie United 3–3 Queen of the South

Airdrie United

FT

3 – 3

HT: 2 – 2

Queen of the South

10/8/2022

League #183 · Round 10Excelsior Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Airdrie United50%

×Draw21%

Queen of the South29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Airdrie UnitedExpected goals in this matchQueen of the South

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.56

Airdrie United

2.11

Queen of the South

1.56

Airdrie United creates 35% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 23 away

2.80

creates per match

1.52

1.60

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Airdrie United

2.80

Queen of the South

1.52

allows per match

Airdrie United

1.60

Queen of the South

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Airdrie United+0.00on par

Queen of the South+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Airdrie United ↓

Queen of the South →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Airdrie United or draw

71%

Airdrie United or Queen of the South

79%

Draw or Queen of the South

50%

Winning margin

Airdrie United wins by 2+

29%

Queen of the South wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Airdrie United 1+ goals

88%

Airdrie United 2+ goals

62%

Airdrie United 3+ goals

35%

Queen of the South 1+ goals

79%

Queen of the South 2+ goals

46%

Queen of the South 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Airdrie United (draw refunded)

64%

Queen of the South (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Airdrie United at home — creates 2.80, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Queen of the South away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.43 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Airdrie United attack 2.80 + Queen of the South defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.11

Queen of the South attack 1.52 + Airdrie United defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Airdrie United scores more

50%

level

21%

Queen of the South scores more

29%

Airdrie United at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Airdrie United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff