Quanzhou Yassin 3–1 Qingdao Red Lions

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Qingdao Red Lions

7/20/2022

League Two · Round 5Dalian Puwan Outfield

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin31%

×Draw29%

Qingdao Red Lions40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchQingdao Red Lions

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.17

Quanzhou Yassin

0.98

Qingdao Red Lions

1.17

Qingdao Red Lions creates 19% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 27 away

0.88

creates per match

0.96

1.38

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Qingdao Red Lions

0.96

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Qingdao Red Lions

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Qingdao Red Lions →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–114%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

60%

Quanzhou Yassin or Qingdao Red Lions

71%

Draw or Qingdao Red Lions

69%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

11%

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

62%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

26%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

8%

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals

69%

Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals

33%

Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

43%

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Qingdao Red Lions away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Qingdao Red Lions attack 0.96 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

31%

level

29%

Qingdao Red Lions scores more

40%

Qingdao Red Lions at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff