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Qingdao Red Lions vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Qingdao Red Lions
Qingdao Red Lions
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
8/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 9Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Qingdao Red Lions51%
×Draw27%
Quanzhou Yassin21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Qingdao Red Lions
1.42
Quanzhou Yassin
0.81

Qingdao Red Lions creates 75% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 47 away

creates per match

Qingdao Red Lions
1.04
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Qingdao Red Lions
0.85
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Qingdao Red Lions+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Qingdao Red Lions ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Qingdao Red Lions or draw
79%
Qingdao Red Lions or Quanzhou Yassin
73%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
49%

Winning margin

Qingdao Red Lions wins by 2+
25%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Qingdao Red Lions 1+ goals
76%
Qingdao Red Lions 2+ goals
41%
Qingdao Red Lions 3+ goals
17%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
56%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
19%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Qingdao Red Lions (draw refunded)
71%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Qingdao Red Lions at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.85 · 26 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Qingdao Red Lions attack 1.04 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.42

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Qingdao Red Lions defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Qingdao Red Lions scores more
51%
level
27%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
21%

Qingdao Red Lions at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Qingdao Red Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Qingdao Red Lions vs Quanzhou Yassin

Quanzhou Yassin beat Qingdao Red Lions 2-0 in League Two on August 12, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10 in Dalian.