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Quanzhou Yassin vs Langfang Glory City — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Langfang Glory City
Langfang Glory City
9/14/2025League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 3Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin35%
×Draw29%
Langfang Glory City36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.10
Langfang Glory City
1.11

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 37 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Langfang Glory City
0.84

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Langfang Glory City
1.32

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Langfang Glory City+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Langfang Glory City →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
64%
Quanzhou Yassin or Langfang Glory City
71%
Draw or Langfang Glory City
65%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
14%
Langfang Glory City wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
67%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
30%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
10%
Langfang Glory City 1+ goals
67%
Langfang Glory City 2+ goals
30%
Langfang Glory City 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
50%
Langfang Glory City (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Langfang Glory City away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.32 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Langfang Glory City defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.10

Langfang Glory City attack 0.84 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
35%
level
29%
Langfang Glory City scores more
36%

Langfang Glory City at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Langfang Glory City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Langfang Glory City

Langfang Glory City beat Quanzhou Yassin 3-2 in League Two on September 14, 2025.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.