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Langfang Glory City vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Langfang Glory City
Langfang Glory City
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
10/18/2025League TwoLeague Two · Relegation Round - 7Linping Sports Centre Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Langfang Glory City58%
×Draw24%
Quanzhou Yassin17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Langfang Glory City
1.64
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

Langfang Glory City creates 113% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 47 away

creates per match

Langfang Glory City
1.49
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Langfang Glory City
0.76
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Langfang Glory City+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Langfang Glory City ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Langfang Glory City or draw
83%
Langfang Glory City or Quanzhou Yassin
76%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
42%

Winning margin

Langfang Glory City wins by 2+
32%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Langfang Glory City 1+ goals
81%
Langfang Glory City 2+ goals
49%
Langfang Glory City 3+ goals
23%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
54%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
18%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Langfang Glory City (draw refunded)
77%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Langfang Glory City at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.76 · 37 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Langfang Glory City attack 1.49 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.64

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Langfang Glory City defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Langfang Glory City scores more
58%
level
24%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
17%

Langfang Glory City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Langfang Glory City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Langfang Glory City vs Quanzhou Yassin

Langfang Glory City beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-1 in League Two on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Linping Sports Centre Stadium in Hangzhou.