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Quanzhou Yassin vs Jinan Xingzhou — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
1 – 2
Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
7/7/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 7+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin20%
×Draw26%
Jinan Xingzhou54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
0.79
Jinan Xingzhou
1.48

Jinan Xingzhou creates 87% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 7 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Jinan Xingzhou
1.57

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Jinan Xingzhou
0.71

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Jinan Xingzhou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–115%
0–211%
0–36%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–03%
2–15%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
46%
Quanzhou Yassin or Jinan Xingzhou
74%
Draw or Jinan Xingzhou
80%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
6%
Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
55%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
19%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
5%
Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
77%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
43%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
27%
Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Jinan Xingzhou away — creates 1.57, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.79

Jinan Xingzhou attack 1.57 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
20%
level
26%
Jinan Xingzhou scores more
54%

Jinan Xingzhou at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Jinan Xingzhou

Jinan Xingzhou beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-1 in League Two on July 7, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10 in Dalian.