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Jinan Xingzhou vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Jinan Xingzhou
Jinan Xingzhou
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
7/30/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 6Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Jinan Xingzhou70%
×Draw20%
Quanzhou Yassin11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Jinan Xingzhou
2.02
Quanzhou Yassin
0.64

Jinan Xingzhou creates 216% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 47 away

creates per match

Jinan Xingzhou
2.25
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Jinan Xingzhou
0.50
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Jinan Xingzhou+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jinan Xingzhou ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Jinan Xingzhou or draw
89%
Jinan Xingzhou or Quanzhou Yassin
80%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
30%

Winning margin

Jinan Xingzhou wins by 2+
44%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Jinan Xingzhou 1+ goals
87%
Jinan Xingzhou 2+ goals
60%
Jinan Xingzhou 3+ goals
33%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
47%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
14%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Jinan Xingzhou (draw refunded)
87%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jinan Xingzhou at home — creates 2.25, concedes 0.50 · 8 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jinan Xingzhou attack 2.25 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 2.02

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Jinan Xingzhou defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Jinan Xingzhou scores more
70%
level
20%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
11%

Jinan Xingzhou at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Jinan Xingzhou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Jinan Xingzhou 2–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Jinan Xingzhou beat Quanzhou Yassin 2-1 in League Two on July 30, 2022.

The match was played at Dalian Dalian Youth Football Training Base No. 10 in Dalian.