Quanzhou Yassin 1–1 Hunan Billows FC

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hunan Billows FC

5/6/2023

League Two · Round 2Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin42%

×Draw26%

Hunan Billows FC31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchHunan Billows FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.16

Quanzhou Yassin

1.40

Hunan Billows FC

1.16

Quanzhou Yassin creates 21% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 33 away

0.88

creates per match

0.94

1.38

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Hunan Billows FC

0.94

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Hunan Billows FC

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Hunan Billows FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

69%

Quanzhou Yassin or Hunan Billows FC

74%

Draw or Hunan Billows FC

58%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

20%

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

75%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

41%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

17%

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals

69%

Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals

32%

Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

58%

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Hunan Billows FC away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.91 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.40

Hunan Billows FC attack 0.94 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

42%

level

26%

Hunan Billows FC scores more

31%

Quanzhou Yassin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff