Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Hunan Billows FC vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Hunan Billows FC
Hunan Billows FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
4/6/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 3Loudi Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Hunan Billows FC41%
×Draw25%
Quanzhou Yassin34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hunan Billows FC
1.50
Quanzhou Yassin
1.34

Hunan Billows FC creates 12% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 47 away

creates per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.22
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Hunan Billows FC
1.91
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Hunan Billows FC+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hunan Billows FC ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Hunan Billows FC or draw
66%
Hunan Billows FC or Quanzhou Yassin
75%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
59%

Winning margin

Hunan Billows FC wins by 2+
20%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Hunan Billows FC 1+ goals
78%
Hunan Billows FC 2+ goals
44%
Hunan Billows FC 3+ goals
19%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
74%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
39%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Hunan Billows FC (draw refunded)
55%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hunan Billows FC at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.91 · 32 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hunan Billows FC attack 1.22 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.50

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Hunan Billows FC defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hunan Billows FC scores more
41%
level
25%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
34%

Hunan Billows FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hunan Billows FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Hunan Billows FC 1–0 Quanzhou Yassin

Hunan Billows FC beat Quanzhou Yassin 1-0 in League Two on April 6, 2024.

The match was played at Loudi Sports Center in Loudi.