Quanzhou Yassin vs Hubei Chufeng Heli — League Two 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 48+ matches
Quanzhou Yassin34%
Hubei Chufeng Heli38%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 48 home / 56 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under58
- Over42
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No52
- Yes48
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Quanzhou Yassin ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches
Hubei Chufeng Heli away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15
Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.09 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Hubei Chufeng Heli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Quanzhou Yassin host Hubei Chufeng Heli on Saturday, 4 October 2025 at 07:30. The match is part of the League Two 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Hubei Chufeng Heli
Quanzhou Yassin and Hubei Chufeng Heli drew 1-1 in League Two on October 4, 2025.
Goals: Wen Jialong (34'), Zheng Hua (59').
The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.