Quanzhou Yassin 2–1 Hubei Chufeng Heli

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Hubei Chufeng Heli

Xie Hongyu 87'

Jin Nuo 35'

Huang Wenzheng 79'

10/12/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 9Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin34%

×Draw28%

Hubei Chufeng Heli38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchHubei Chufeng Heli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.23

Quanzhou Yassin

1.15

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 56 away

0.88

creates per match

1.09

1.38

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.09

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Hubei Chufeng Heli

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Hubei Chufeng Heli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Hubei Chufeng Heli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

62%

Quanzhou Yassin or Hubei Chufeng Heli

72%

Draw or Hubei Chufeng Heli

66%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

14%

Hubei Chufeng Heli wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

68%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

32%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

11%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 1+ goals

71%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 2+ goals

35%

Hubei Chufeng Heli 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

47%

Hubei Chufeng Heli (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Hubei Chufeng Heli away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Hubei Chufeng Heli defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.15

Hubei Chufeng Heli attack 1.09 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

34%

level

28%

Hubei Chufeng Heli scores more

38%

Hubei Chufeng Heli at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Hubei Chufeng Heli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'

Jin Nuo↳ Han Guangmin

36'

Xie Hongyu← Wang Jiajun

46'

Mewlan Memetimin← Wang Dingkun

46'

Wang Zhicheng← Sun Wenchao

58'

Wei Zixian← Min Xiankun

69'

Yang Boyue← Gao Su

71'

Ilaldin Abdugheni← Dong Xu

78'

Luo Dongping

79'

Huang Wenzheng↳ Mewlan Memetimin

83'

Zhong Mingzhi← Wei Zixian

87'

Xie Hongyu↳ Han Guangmin

90+3'

Deng Jiaxing← Liu Tianyang

Quanzhou

Hubei

60

70

46

54

58

49

▼

Dingkun

51

▼

Su

55

Zihao

67

▼

Xiankun

53

▼

Wenchao

52

⚽

25

19

18

26

10

33

▼

Tianyang

28

⚽

Nuo

50

Dongping

57

A

Guangmin

17

▼

Xu

3

▼

Jiajun

Manager: Zhao Ming

36'▲Xie Hongyu←▼Wang Jiajun

71'▲Ilaldin Abdugheni←▼Dong Xu

90+3'▲Deng Jiaxing←▼Liu Tianyang

Quanzhou Yassin substitutes

20Hongyu37Abdugheni27Jiaxing1Xiang41Bohan56Chen47Jiakang55Jixuan9Yalun14Yulong52Jiliang21Jie

Manager: Gao Feng

46'▲Mewlan Memetimin←▼Wang Dingkun

46'▲Wang Zhicheng←▼Sun Wenchao

58'▲Wei Zixian←▼Min Xiankun

69'▲Yang Boyue←▼Gao Su

83'▲Zhong Mingzhi←▼Wei Zixian

Hubei Chufeng Heli substitutes

65Memetimin48Zhicheng64Zixian50Boyue61Mingzhi63Jun56Xin71Derui41Jingcheng