Quanzhou Yassin 2–2 Guizhou Zhucheng

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Guizhou Zhucheng

7/13/2025

League Two · Round 19Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin35%

×Draw28%

Guizhou Zhucheng37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchGuizhou Zhucheng

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.19

1.23

Quanzhou Yassin

1.19

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 22 away

0.88

creates per match

1.09

1.38

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.09

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Guizhou Zhucheng →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

63%

Quanzhou Yassin or Guizhou Zhucheng

72%

Draw or Guizhou Zhucheng

65%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

15%

Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

70%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

33%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

12%

Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals

71%

Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals

35%

Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

49%

Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Guizhou Zhucheng away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.50 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.09 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

35%

level

28%

Guizhou Zhucheng scores more

37%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff