Guizhou Zhucheng 1–0 Quanzhou Yassin

Guizhou Zhucheng

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

5/6/2025

League Two · Round 8Guiyang Olympic Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guizhou Zhucheng62%

×Draw24%

Quanzhou Yassin15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guizhou ZhuchengExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

0.69

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.70

Quanzhou Yassin

0.69

Guizhou Zhucheng creates 146% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 47 away

1.61

creates per match

0.77

0.61

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Guizhou Zhucheng

1.61

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Guizhou Zhucheng

0.61

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guizhou Zhucheng+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guizhou Zhucheng ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Guizhou Zhucheng or draw

85%

Guizhou Zhucheng or Quanzhou Yassin

76%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

38%

Winning margin

Guizhou Zhucheng wins by 2+

35%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Guizhou Zhucheng 1+ goals

82%

Guizhou Zhucheng 2+ goals

51%

Guizhou Zhucheng 3+ goals

24%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

50%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

15%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Guizhou Zhucheng (draw refunded)

81%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guizhou Zhucheng at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.61 · 23 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guizhou Zhucheng attack 1.61 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.70

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Guizhou Zhucheng defence 0.61 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Guizhou Zhucheng scores more

62%

level

24%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

15%

Guizhou Zhucheng at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Guizhou Zhucheng will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff