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Quanzhou Yassin vs Guangxi Lanhang — League Two 2022

Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
7/30/2023League TwoLeague Two · Round 13Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin37%
×Draw28%
Guangxi Lanhang34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quanzhou Yassin
1.19
Guangxi Lanhang
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 40 away

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin
0.88
Guangxi Lanhang
0.88

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin
1.38
Guangxi Lanhang
1.50

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par
Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Guangxi Lanhang →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw
66%
Quanzhou Yassin or Guangxi Lanhang
72%
Draw or Guangxi Lanhang
63%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
16%
Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
70%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
33%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
12%
Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
68%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
31%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
52%
Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Guangxi Lanhang away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.50 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.19

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.88 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more
37%
level
28%
Guangxi Lanhang scores more
34%

Quanzhou Yassin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs Guangxi Lanhang

Guangxi Lanhang beat Quanzhou Yassin 1-0 in League Two on July 30, 2023.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.