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Guangxi Lanhang vs Quanzhou Yassin — League Two 2022

Guangxi Lanhang
Guangxi Lanhang
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Quanzhou Yassin
Quanzhou Yassin
5/17/2025League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Dongxing Sports Center

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Guangxi Lanhang38%
×Draw27%
Quanzhou Yassin35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guangxi Lanhang
1.29
Quanzhou Yassin
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 40 home / 47 away

creates per match

Guangxi Lanhang
0.80
Quanzhou Yassin
0.77

allows per match

Guangxi Lanhang
1.70
Quanzhou Yassin
1.79

finishing

Guangxi Lanhang+0.00on par
Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangxi Lanhang ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guangxi Lanhang or draw
65%
Guangxi Lanhang or Quanzhou Yassin
73%
Draw or Quanzhou Yassin
62%

Winning margin

Guangxi Lanhang wins by 2+
17%
Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guangxi Lanhang 1+ goals
72%
Guangxi Lanhang 2+ goals
37%
Guangxi Lanhang 3+ goals
14%
Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals
71%
Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals
35%
Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Guangxi Lanhang (draw refunded)
52%
Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangxi Lanhang at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.70 · 40 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangxi Lanhang attack 0.80 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.29

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Guangxi Lanhang defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guangxi Lanhang scores more
38%
level
27%
Quanzhou Yassin scores more
35%

Guangxi Lanhang at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guangxi Lanhang will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Two: Guangxi Lanhang 0–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Quanzhou Yassin beat Guangxi Lanhang 1-0 in League Two on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Dongxing Sports Center in Dongxing.