Quanzhou Yassin 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guangdong Mingtu

4/12/2025

League Two · Round 5Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin35%

×Draw29%

Guangdong Mingtu37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchGuangdong Mingtu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.13

Quanzhou Yassin

1.09

Guangdong Mingtu

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 23 away

0.88

creates per match

0.87

1.38

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

Guangdong Mingtu

0.87

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

Guangdong Mingtu

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Guangdong Mingtu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

Guangdong Mingtu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

63%

Quanzhou Yassin or Guangdong Mingtu

71%

Draw or Guangdong Mingtu

65%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

14%

Guangdong Mingtu wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

66%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

30%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

10%

Guangdong Mingtu 1+ goals

68%

Guangdong Mingtu 2+ goals

31%

Guangdong Mingtu 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

49%

Guangdong Mingtu (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

Guangdong Mingtu away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.30 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + Guangdong Mingtu defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.09

Guangdong Mingtu attack 0.87 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

35%

level

29%

Guangdong Mingtu scores more

37%

Guangdong Mingtu at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Guangdong Mingtu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

26'

46'

46'

54'

54'

57'

67'

Pan Yixuan← Wang Jiajun

67'

Z. Wu← Y. Ren

67'

Y. Wen← H. Yao

75'

Sun Jinyu← Deng Shenzhu

78'

J. He← Huang Guangliang

78'

L. Chen← B. Yin

83'

Chen Ruichao← Hua Peihui

90+6'

Cui Qilong← Zhang Yuheng

90+3'

Peng Jiahao← X. Zhu

Quanzhou

Guangdong

59

6

49

5

52

44

▼

Yin

21

▼

Guanglian

43

▼

Zhu

46

▼

Luo

51

▼

Yao

54

▼

41

22

45

3

57

▼

Yuheng

32

Zeng

53

▼

Shenzhu

46

▼

Peihui

62

▼

Jiale

8

▼

Emet

7

▼

Jiajun

Manager: Xiaoqi Yang

46'▲Zheng Hua←▼E. Emet

46'▲G. Zhang←▼Su Jiale

67'▲Pan Yixuan←▼Wang Jiajun

75'▲Sun Jinyu←▼Deng Shenzhu

83'▲Chen Ruichao←▼Hua Peihui

90+6'▲Cui Qilong←▼Zhang Yuheng

Quanzhou Yassin substitutes

61Yixuan15Jixuan56Ruichao55Haoxue50Hua42Qilong51Haohan54Jinyu44Zhang43Tiansheng1Yunlin

Manager: Haoming Li

57'▲E. Abdusemet←▼H. Luo

67'▲Z. Wu←▼Y. Ren

67'▲Y. Wen←▼H. Yao

78'▲J. He←▼Huang Guangliang

78'▲L. Chen←▼B. Yin

90+3'▲Peng Jiahao←▼X. Zhu

Guangdong Mingtu substitutes

42He45Chen61Yikai57Wu56Abdusemet41Fang50Zhao8Wen7Xin4Jiahao48Liu64Wang

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu

Quanzhou Yassin and Guangdong Mingtu drew 0-0 in League Two on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.

Quanzhou Yassin vs Guangdong Mingtu — League Two 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Quanzhou Yassin 0–0 Guangdong Mingtu