Guangdong Mingtu 2–1 Quanzhou Yassin

Guangdong Mingtu

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

Z. Wu 67'

J. He 56'

Deng Shenzhu 87'

6/27/2025

League Two · Round 16Huadu Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guangdong Mingtu45%

×Draw27%

Quanzhou Yassin29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guangdong MingtuExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.06

Guangdong Mingtu

1.40

Quanzhou Yassin

1.06

Guangdong Mingtu creates 32% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 47 away

1.00

creates per match

0.77

1.35

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Guangdong Mingtu

1.00

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

Guangdong Mingtu

1.35

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guangdong Mingtu+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guangdong Mingtu ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

45%55%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guangdong Mingtu or draw

71%

Guangdong Mingtu or Quanzhou Yassin

73%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

55%

Winning margin

Guangdong Mingtu wins by 2+

21%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guangdong Mingtu 1+ goals

75%

Guangdong Mingtu 2+ goals

41%

Guangdong Mingtu 3+ goals

17%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

65%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

29%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Guangdong Mingtu (draw refunded)

61%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guangdong Mingtu at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guangdong Mingtu attack 1.00 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.40

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + Guangdong Mingtu defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guangdong Mingtu scores more

45%

level

27%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

29%

Guangdong Mingtu at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guangdong Mingtu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

E. Abdusemet← Huang Yikai

56'

J. He↳ E. Abdusemet

67'

Z. Wu

69'

Su Jiale← Sun Tao

77'

Wang Jiajun

79'

Zhang Junzhe← Zheng Zhiming

79'

Sun Jinyu← Hua Peihui

86'

Y. Ren← J. He

87'

Deng Shenzhu

90+7'

N. Pan← X. Zhu

Guangdong

Quanzhou

55

45

8

3

17

56

53

⚽

Shenzhu

46

▼

Peihui

50

Hua

48

▼

7

39

15

49

61

▼

Yikai

5

▼

52

51

21

43

▼

Zhu

57

⚽

Wu

42

⚽

▼

He

Manager: Haoming Li

46'▲E. Abdusemet←▼Huang Yikai

79'▲Zhang Junzhe←▼Zheng Zhiming

86'▲Y. Ren←▼J. He

90+7'▲N. Pan←▼X. Zhu

Guangdong Mingtu substitutes

59Li48Liu53Pan4Jiahao6Junzhe56Abdusemet45Chen41Fang7Xin55Pan54Ren

Manager: Xiaoqi Yang

69'▲Su Jiale←▼Sun Tao

79'▲Sun Jinyu←▼Hua Peihui

Quanzhou Yassin substitutes

1Yunlin51Haohan43Tiansheng54Jinyu57Yuheng61Yixuan62Jiale15Jixuan60Yibin