Quanzhou Yassin 2–1 BIT: Result & Stats

Quanzhou Yassin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

BIT

Zhang Chongguang 55' (pen)

Dong Xu 36'

Wang Jian 4'

9/29/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 7Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

Quanzhou Yassin36%

×Draw28%

BIT35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quanzhou YassinExpected goals in this matchBIT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.15

Quanzhou Yassin

1.17

BIT

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 47 away

0.88

creates per match

0.91

1.38

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Quanzhou Yassin

0.88

BIT

0.91

allows per match

Quanzhou Yassin

1.38

BIT

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

BIT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quanzhou Yassin ↓

BIT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Quanzhou Yassin or draw

65%

Quanzhou Yassin or BIT

72%

Draw or BIT

64%

Winning margin

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

15%

BIT wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

69%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

33%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

11%

BIT 1+ goals

68%

BIT 2+ goals

32%

BIT 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

51%

BIT (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quanzhou Yassin at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.38 · 48 matches

BIT away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.45 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.88 + BIT defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.17

BIT attack 0.91 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

36%

level

28%

BIT scores more

35%

Quanzhou Yassin at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Quanzhou Yassin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Wang Jian

33'

Bai Jiong

36'

Dong Xu↳ Liu Tianyang

46'

Liu Zongyuan← Qian Cheng

46'

Cui Hao← Wang Jian

51'

Xie Hongyu

55'

Zhang ChongguangPenalty

64'

Hua Mingcan← Li Libo

64'

Sun Jiale← Wei Xin

66'

Han Guangmin← Zhang Chongguang

66'

Jin Nuo← Dong Xu

71'

Xie Xiaofan← Yin Jie

75'

Ma Chuhang← Chen Boyi

78'

Jia Hanlin← Chen Jidong

79'

Jia Hanlin

81'

Ilaldin Abdugheni← Luo Dongping

84'

Wang Jiajun← Deng Jiaxing

86'

Sun Jiale

88'

Guo Jiawei

90+8'

Chen Shaoyang

Quanzhou

BIT

23

Chuyu

3

▼

22

55

60

10

⚽

▼

Jian

17

▼

Libo

52

▼

Cheng

58

Jiong

59

▼

Boyi

11

▼

25

18

26

20

10

33

A

Tianyang

21

▼

Jie

50

▼

Dongping

27

▼

Jiaxing

11

⚽

▼

Chongguan

17

⚽

▼

Xu

Manager: Zhao Ming

66'▲Han Guangmin←▼Zhang Chongguang

66'▲Jin Nuo←▼Dong Xu

71'▲Xie Xiaofan←▼Yin Jie

81'▲Ilaldin Abdugheni←▼Luo Dongping

84'▲Wang Jiajun←▼Deng Jiaxing

Quanzhou Yassin substitutes

57Guangmin28Nuo31Xiaofan37Abdugheni3Jiajun52Jiliang6Yanbo1Xiang56Chen55Jixuan47Jiakang14Yulong

Manager: Yu Fei

46'▲Liu Zongyuan←▼Qian Cheng

46'▲Cui Hao←▼Wang Jian

64'▲Hua Mingcan←▼Li Libo

64'▲Sun Jiale←▼Wei Xin

75'▲Ma Chuhang←▼Chen Boyi

78'▲Jia Hanlin←▼Chen Jidong

BIT substitutes

48Zongyuan19Hao46Mingcan8Jiale37Chuhang14Hanlin45Jian1Jingyu50Atai21Haohan9Dingkang16Haoyu

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs BIT

Quanzhou Yassin beat BIT 2-1 in League Two on September 29, 2024.

Goals: Wang Jian (4'), Dong Xu (36'), Zhang Chongguang (55' pen).

The match was played at Jinjiang Football Training Center Stadium in Jinjiang.

Quanzhou Yassin vs BIT — League Two 2022

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Quanzhou Yassin vs BIT