BIT 1–0 Quanzhou Yassin: Result & Stats

BIT

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Quanzhou Yassin

8/25/2024

League Two · Relegation Round - 2Beijing Institute of Technology Eastern Athletic Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 47+ matches

BIT50%

×Draw27%

Quanzhou Yassin24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BITExpected goals in this matchQuanzhou Yassin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

0.91

BIT

1.45

Quanzhou Yassin

0.91

BIT creates 59% more chances

Season form · 47 home / 47 away

1.11

creates per match

0.77

1.04

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

BIT

1.11

Quanzhou Yassin

0.77

allows per match

BIT

1.04

Quanzhou Yassin

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

BIT+0.00on par

Quanzhou Yassin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

BIT ↓

Quanzhou Yassin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

BIT or draw

76%

BIT or Quanzhou Yassin

73%

Draw or Quanzhou Yassin

50%

Winning margin

BIT wins by 2+

25%

Quanzhou Yassin wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

BIT 1+ goals

77%

BIT 2+ goals

42%

BIT 3+ goals

18%

Quanzhou Yassin 1+ goals

60%

Quanzhou Yassin 2+ goals

23%

Quanzhou Yassin 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

BIT (draw refunded)

68%

Quanzhou Yassin (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

BIT at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.04 · 47 matches

Quanzhou Yassin away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.79 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

BIT attack 1.11 + Quanzhou Yassin defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.45

Quanzhou Yassin attack 0.77 + BIT defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

BIT scores more

50%

level

27%

Quanzhou Yassin scores more

24%

BIT at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "BIT will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff