Quang Nam 3–2 Phú Thọ: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Quang Nam

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Phú Thọ

8/2/2023

V.League 2 · Round 14Sân vận động Tam Kỳ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quang Nam63%

×Draw22%

Phú Thọ15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quang NamExpected goals in this matchPhú Thọ

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.78

Quang Nam

1.88

Phú Thọ

0.78

Quang Nam creates 141% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 33 away

2.00

creates per match

0.73

0.83

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Quang Nam

2.00

Phú Thọ

0.73

allows per match

Quang Nam

0.83

Phú Thọ

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quang Nam ↓

Phú Thọ →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Quang Nam or draw

85%

Quang Nam or Phú Thọ

78%

Draw or Phú Thọ

37%

Winning margin

Quang Nam wins by 2+

38%

Phú Thọ wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Quang Nam 1+ goals

85%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

56%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

29%

Phú Thọ 1+ goals

54%

Phú Thọ 2+ goals

18%

Phú Thọ 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

81%

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quang Nam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Phú Thọ away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quang Nam attack 2.00 + Phú Thọ defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.88

Phú Thọ attack 0.73 + Quang Nam defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Quang Nam scores more

63%

level

22%

Phú Thọ scores more

15%

Quang Nam at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff