Phú Thọ 0–1 Quang Nam: Result & Stats | V.League 2

Phú Thọ

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Quang Nam

6/25/2023

V.League 2 · Round 9Sân vận động Việt Trì

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Phú Thọ25%

×Draw28%

Quang Nam47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Phú ThọExpected goals in this matchQuang Nam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.88

1.34

Phú Thọ

0.88

Quang Nam

1.34

Quang Nam creates 52% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 24 away

0.67

creates per match

1.29

1.39

allows per match

1.08

creates per match

Phú Thọ

0.67

Quang Nam

1.29

allows per match

Phú Thọ

1.39

Quang Nam

1.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Phú Thọ+0.00on par

Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Phú Thọ ↓

Quang Nam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–115%

0–210%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Phú Thọ or draw

53%

Phú Thọ or Quang Nam

72%

Draw or Quang Nam

75%

Winning margin

Phú Thọ wins by 2+

8%

Quang Nam wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Phú Thọ 1+ goals

59%

Phú Thọ 2+ goals

22%

Phú Thọ 3+ goals

6%

Quang Nam 1+ goals

74%

Quang Nam 2+ goals

39%

Quang Nam 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Phú Thọ (draw refunded)

34%

Quang Nam (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Phú Thọ at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Phú Thọ attack 0.67 + Quang Nam defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.88

Quang Nam attack 1.29 + Phú Thọ defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Phú Thọ scores more

25%

level

28%

Quang Nam scores more

47%

Quang Nam at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff