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Quang Nam vs Long An — V.League 2 2020

Quang Nam
Quang Nam
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Long An
Long An
8/27/2022V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Tam Kỳ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Quang Nam59%
×Draw23%
Long An18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Quang Nam
1.77
Long An
0.86

Quang Nam creates 106% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 62 away

creates per match

Quang Nam
2.00
Long An
0.89

allows per match

Quang Nam
0.83
Long An
1.53

finishing

Quang Nam+0.00on par
Long An+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Quang Nam ↓

Long An →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Quang Nam or draw
82%
Quang Nam or Long An
77%
Draw or Long An
41%

Winning margin

Quang Nam wins by 2+
33%
Long An wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Quang Nam 1+ goals
83%
Quang Nam 2+ goals
53%
Quang Nam 3+ goals
26%
Long An 1+ goals
58%
Long An 2+ goals
21%
Long An 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Quang Nam (draw refunded)
77%
Long An (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Quang Nam at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.83 · 23 matches

Long An away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.53 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Quang Nam attack 2.00 + Long An defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.77

Long An attack 0.89 + Quang Nam defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Quang Nam scores more
59%
level
23%
Long An scores more
18%

Quang Nam at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Quang Nam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Quang Nam vs Long An

Quang Nam and Long An drew 0-0 in V.League 2 on August 27, 2022.

The match was played at Sân vận động Tam Kỳ in Tam Ky.