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Long An vs Quang Nam — V.League 2 2020

Long An
Long An
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Quang Nam
Quang Nam
7/29/2023V.League 2V.League 2 · Round 13Sân vận động Long An

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Long An37%
×Draw28%
Quang Nam35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Long An
1.21
Quang Nam
1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 63 home / 24 away

creates per match

Long An
1.33
Quang Nam
1.29

allows per match

Long An
1.00
Quang Nam
1.08

finishing

Long An+0.00on par
Quang Nam+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Long An ↓

Quang Nam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Long An or draw
65%
Long An or Quang Nam
72%
Draw or Quang Nam
63%

Winning margin

Long An wins by 2+
16%
Quang Nam wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Long An 1+ goals
70%
Long An 2+ goals
34%
Long An 3+ goals
12%
Quang Nam 1+ goals
68%
Quang Nam 2+ goals
32%
Quang Nam 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Long An (draw refunded)
52%
Quang Nam (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Long An at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.00 · 63 matches

Quang Nam away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Long An attack 1.33 + Quang Nam defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.21

Quang Nam attack 1.29 + Long An defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Long An scores more
37%
level
28%
Quang Nam scores more
35%

Long An at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Long An will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

V.League 2: Long An 2–1 Quang Nam

Long An beat Quang Nam 2-1 in V.League 2 on July 29, 2023.

The match was played at Sân vận động Long An in Tan An.