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QPR vs West Brom — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
12/6/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 19Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 13+ matches

QPR34%
×Draw28%
West Brom38%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.14
West Brom
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 13 away

creates per match

QPR
1.34
West Brom
1.42

allows per match

QPR
0.99
West Brom
0.94

finishing

QPR+0.20scores more
West Brom-0.50scores less

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
62%
QPR or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
66%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
14%
West Brom wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
68%
QPR 2+ goals
32%
QPR 3+ goals
11%
West Brom 1+ goals
70%
West Brom 2+ goals
34%
West Brom 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
48%
West Brom (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.99 · 13 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.42, concedes 0.94 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + West Brom defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.14

West Brom attack 1.42 + QPR defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

QPR scores more
34%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
38%

West Brom at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "West Brom will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: QPR vs West Brom

QPR beat West Brom 3-1 in Championship on December 6, 2025.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.