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QPR vs West Brom — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
West Brom
West Brom
L. Andersen 16'
J. Maja 65', 51', 26'
8/10/2024ChampionshipChampionship · Round 1MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

QPR43%
×Draw28%
West Brom29%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.30
West Brom
1.02

QPR creates 27% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 28 away

creates per match

QPR
1.43
West Brom
1.15

allows per match

QPR
0.90
West Brom
1.17

finishing

QPR+0.10scores more
West Brom-0.22scores less

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

QPR or draw
71%
QPR or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
57%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
20%
West Brom wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
37%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
64%
West Brom 2+ goals
27%
West Brom 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
60%
West Brom (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.90 · 17 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.17 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.43 + West Brom defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.30

West Brom attack 1.15 + QPR defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

QPR scores more
43%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
29%

QPR at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9
J. MajaWest BromWest Brom · F
9.3

Match Events

16'
L. Andersen↳ R. Kolli
26'
J. Maja↳ T. Heggem
51'
J. Maja↳ T. Fellows
57'
A. Lloyd← R. Kolli
65'
J. Maja
71'
J. Varane← J. Colback
71'
M. Frey← Ž. Celar
76'
O. Diakité← J. Molumby
76'
D. Cole← J. Maja
81'
L. Dobbin← T. Fellows
85'
D. Bennie← P. Smyth
85'
G. Frabotta← T. Heggem
90+3'
Steve Cook

Possession

39%QPR

Shots

11QPR

Pass accuracy

46%QPR

Statistics

QPRWest
Overview
39%Possession61%
11Total Shots7
0.85Expected Goals (xG)1.49
12Corners3
7Fouls7
Shots
11Total Shots7
6On Target4
2Off Target1
3Blocked2
9Inside Box7
2Outside Box0
Passing
39%Possession61%
300Total Passes497
220Accurate Passes416
73%Pass Accuracy84%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0.46Goals Prevented0.46
Discipline
7Fouls7
1Yellow Cards0
3Offsides1

Championship: QPR 1–3 West Brom

West Brom beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on August 10, 2024.

Goals: L. Andersen (16'), J. Maja (26', 51', 65').

West Brom controlled possession (61%) and registered 7 shots to 11.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.