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QPR vs West Brom — Championship 2018

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
West Brom
West Brom
C. Austin 89'
1/15/2022ChampionshipChampionship · Round 27Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 56+ matches

QPR39%
×Draw28%
West Brom33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.27
West Brom
1.14

QPR creates 11% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 56 away

creates per match

QPR
1.31
West Brom
1.15

allows per match

QPR
1.12
West Brom
1.23

finishing

QPR+0.09on par
West Brom-0.02on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

West Brom →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

QPR or draw
67%
QPR or West Brom
72%
Draw or West Brom
61%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
17%
West Brom wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
72%
QPR 2+ goals
36%
QPR 3+ goals
14%
West Brom 1+ goals
68%
West Brom 2+ goals
32%
West Brom 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
54%
West Brom (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.31, concedes 1.12 · 58 matches

West Brom away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.23 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.31 + West Brom defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.27

West Brom attack 1.15 + QPR defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

QPR scores more
39%
level
28%
West Brom scores more
33%

QPR at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

4
R. DickieQPRQPR · D
7.9

Match Events

9'
Robert Dickie
59'
D. Dike← M. Phillips
64'
C. Austin← A. Gray
70'
Samuel Field
89'
C. Austin↳ C. Willock
90+7'
Jayson Molumby
90+3'
D. Ball← C. Willock

Possession

53%QPR

Shots

9QPR

Pass accuracy

51%QPR

Statistics

QPRWest
Overview
53%Possession47%
9Total Shots12
2Corners5
12Fouls12
Shots
9Total Shots12
4On Target2
3Off Target6
2Blocked4
5Inside Box5
4Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
439Total Passes379
290Accurate Passes243
66%Pass Accuracy64%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
Discipline
12Fouls12
2Yellow Cards1
3Offsides1

Championship: QPR 1–0 West Brom

QPR beat West Brom 1-0 in Championship on January 15, 2022.

Goals: C. Austin (89').

QPR controlled possession (53%) and registered 9 shots to 12.

The match was played at Kiyan Prince Foundation Stadium in London.