QPR 0–0 Sunderland: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sunderland

11/2/2024

Championship · Round 13MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

QPR45%

×Draw28%

Sunderland27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchSunderland

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

0.97

QPR

1.33

Sunderland

0.97

QPR creates 37% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 7 away

1.42

creates per match

0.95

0.99

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

QPR

1.42

Sunderland

0.95

allows per match

QPR

0.99

Sunderland

1.24

-0.02on par

finishing

+0.19scores more than expected

finishing

QPR-0.02on par

Sunderland+0.19scores more

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Sunderland →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw

73%

QPR or Sunderland

72%

Draw or Sunderland

55%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

21%

Sunderland wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

74%

QPR 2+ goals

38%

QPR 3+ goals

15%

Sunderland 1+ goals

62%

Sunderland 2+ goals

25%

Sunderland 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

62%

Sunderland (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.42, concedes 0.99 · 20 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.24 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.42 + Sunderland defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.33

Sunderland attack 0.95 + QPR defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

QPR scores more

45%

level

28%

Sunderland scores more

27%

QPR at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Cook

QPR · D

7.7

Match Events

44'

Hevertton Santos← H. Ashby

58'

Jobe Bellingham

64'

A. Connolly← R. Mundle

68'

K. Saito← P. Smyth

70'

Simon Moore

78'

Žan Celar

81'

L. Andersen← N. Madsen

90+6'

Patrick Roberts

90+2'

L. Hjelde← W. Isidor

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRSunderland

Overview

60%Possession40%

17Total Shots8

1.40Expected Goals (xG)0.83

6Corners6

12Fouls10

Shots

17Total Shots8

3On Target1

12Off Target5

2Blocked2

11Inside Box5

6Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

476Total Passes317

399Accurate Passes240

84%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0.40Goals Prevented0.40

Discipline

12Fouls10

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

2Offsides1