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QPR vs Sunderland — Championship 2025

QPR
QPR
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Sunderland
Sunderland
K. Paal 12'
A. Ba 81'
D. Ballard 57'
J. Clarke 45+8'
9/16/2023ChampionshipChampionship · Round 6Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

QPR44%
×Draw28%
Sunderland28%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

QPR
1.32
Sunderland
0.98

QPR creates 35% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 6 away

creates per match

QPR
1.42
Sunderland
0.97

allows per match

QPR
1.00
Sunderland
1.22

finishing

QPR+0.05on par
Sunderland+0.36scores more

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Sunderland →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

QPR or draw
72%
QPR or Sunderland
72%
Draw or Sunderland
56%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+
21%
Sunderland wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals
73%
QPR 2+ goals
38%
QPR 3+ goals
15%
Sunderland 1+ goals
62%
Sunderland 2+ goals
26%
Sunderland 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)
62%
Sunderland (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.00 · 19 matches

Sunderland away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.22 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.42 + Sunderland defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.32

Sunderland attack 0.97 + QPR defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

QPR scores more
44%
level
28%
Sunderland scores more
28%

QPR at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20
J. ClarkeSunderlandSunderland · M
8.6

Match Events

12'
K. Paal↳ I. Chair
14'
A. Pritchard← P. Ekwah
21'
Jack Colback
33'
Sinclair Armstrong
45+8'
J. Clarke↳ N. Huggins
46'
P. Roberts← N. Huggins
57'
D. Ballard
60'
L. Dykes← P. Smyth
61'
A. Aouchiche← M. Burstow
68'
Z. Larkeche← K. Paal
68'
C. Willock← I. Chair
68'
R. Kolli← S. Armstrong
74'
J. Clarke-Salter← S. Cook
79'
Osman Kakay
81'
A. Ba↳ A. Aouchiche
83'
Luís Semedo← J. Bellingham

Possession

28%QPR

Shots

5QPR

Pass accuracy

43%QPR

Statistics

QPRSunderland
Overview
28%Possession72%
5Total Shots22
0.30Expected Goals (xG)2.42
0Corners8
12Fouls3
Shots
5Total Shots22
3On Target8
1Off Target8
1Blocked6
2Inside Box13
3Outside Box9
Passing
28%Possession72%
238Total Passes637
156Accurate Passes566
66%Pass Accuracy89%
Goalkeeping
5Saves2
Discipline
12Fouls3
2Yellow Cards0
1Red Cards0
4Offsides2

Match Recap: QPR vs Sunderland

Sunderland beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on September 16, 2023.

Goals: K. Paal (12'), J. Clarke (45+8'), D. Ballard (57'), A. Ba (81').

Sunderland controlled possession (72%) and registered 22 shots to 5.

The match was played at Loftus Road in London.