QPR 0–4 Middlesbrough: Result & Stats

QPR

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Middlesbrough

3/8/2026

Championship · Round 36Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

QPR37%

×Draw26%

Middlesbrough37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchMiddlesbrough

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

QPR

1.31

Middlesbrough

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 24 away

1.34

creates per match

1.49

1.14

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

QPR

1.34

Middlesbrough

1.49

allows per match

QPR

1.14

Middlesbrough

1.28

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

-0.07on par

finishing

QPR+0.10scores more

Middlesbrough-0.07on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Middlesbrough →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw

63%

QPR or Middlesbrough

74%

Draw or Middlesbrough

63%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

16%

Middlesbrough wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

73%

QPR 2+ goals

38%

QPR 3+ goals

14%

Middlesbrough 1+ goals

73%

Middlesbrough 2+ goals

38%

Middlesbrough 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

50%

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.14 · 27 matches

Middlesbrough away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Middlesbrough defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Middlesbrough attack 1.49 + QPR defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more

37%

level

26%

Middlesbrough scores more

37%

QPR at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff