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Middlesbrough vs QPR — Championship 2018

Middlesbrough
Middlesbrough
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
QPR
QPR
12/13/2025ChampionshipChampionship · Round 21Riverside Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 24+ matches

Middlesbrough53%
×Draw27%
QPR20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Middlesbrough
1.44
QPR
0.76

Middlesbrough creates 89% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 30 away

creates per match

Middlesbrough
1.70
QPR
0.77

allows per match

Middlesbrough
0.75
QPR
1.17

finishing

Middlesbrough+0.01on par
QPR+0.10scores more

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Middlesbrough ↓

QPR →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Middlesbrough or draw
80%
Middlesbrough or QPR
73%
Draw or QPR
47%

Winning margin

Middlesbrough wins by 2+
27%
QPR wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Middlesbrough 1+ goals
76%
Middlesbrough 2+ goals
42%
Middlesbrough 3+ goals
18%
QPR 1+ goals
53%
QPR 2+ goals
18%
QPR 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Middlesbrough (draw refunded)
73%
QPR (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Middlesbrough at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.75 · 24 matches

QPR away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.17 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Middlesbrough attack 1.70 + QPR defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

QPR attack 0.77 + Middlesbrough defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Middlesbrough scores more
53%
level
27%
QPR scores more
20%

Middlesbrough at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Middlesbrough will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Championship: Middlesbrough 3–1 QPR

Middlesbrough beat QPR 3-1 in Championship on December 13, 2025.

The match was played at Riverside Stadium in Middlesbrough.