QPR 1–2 Leicester: Result & Stats | Championship

QPR

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Leicester

A. Dozzell 40'

H. Winks 80'

S. Mavididi 30'

10/28/2023

Championship · Round 14MATRADE Loftus Road

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

QPR37%

×Draw26%

Leicester37%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

QPRExpected goals in this matchLeicester

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.31

1.30

QPR

1.31

Leicester

1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

1.49

1.11

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

QPR

1.34

Leicester

1.49

allows per match

QPR

1.11

Leicester

1.28

-0.06on par

finishing

-0.08on par

finishing

QPR-0.06on par

Leicester-0.08on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

QPR ↓

Leicester →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

QPR or draw

63%

QPR or Leicester

74%

Draw or Leicester

63%

Winning margin

QPR wins by 2+

17%

Leicester wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

QPR 1+ goals

73%

QPR 2+ goals

38%

QPR 3+ goals

14%

Leicester 1+ goals

73%

Leicester 2+ goals

37%

Leicester 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

QPR (draw refunded)

50%

Leicester (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

QPR at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.11 · 25 matches

Leicester away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.28 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

QPR attack 1.34 + Leicester defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.31

Leicester attack 1.49 + QPR defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

QPR scores more

37%

level

26%

Leicester scores more

37%

QPR at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "QPR will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

S. Mavididi

Leicester · F

8.2

Match Events

30'

S. Mavididi↳ K. Dewsbury-Hall

40'

59'

59'

59'

59'

Abdul Fatawu Issahaku

63'

E. Dixon-Bonner← C. Kelman

66'

Jack Colback

67'

Ricardo Pereira← H. Choudhury

79'

K. Ịheanachọ← C. Casadei

80'

H. Winks↳ S. Mavididi

83'

M. Albrighton← A. Fatawu

83'

K. McAteer← J. Vardy

87'

P. Smyth← A. Adomah

90+2'

Ricardo Pereira

90+4'

C. Willock← J. Colback

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

QPRLeicester

Overview

21%Possession79%

9Total Shots16

0.46Expected Goals (xG)1.24

1Corners8

13Fouls7

Shots

9Total Shots16

3On Target5

3Off Target5

3Blocked6

3Inside Box11

6Outside Box5

Passing

21%Possession79%

209Total Passes827

143Accurate Passes764

68%Pass Accuracy92%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls7

3Yellow Cards2

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3

Championship: QPR 1–2 Leicester

Leicester beat QPR 2-1 in Championship on October 28, 2023.

Goals: S. Mavididi (30'), A. Dozzell (40'), H. Winks (80').

Leicester controlled possession (79%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at MATRADE Loftus Road in London.

QPR vs Leicester — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Championship: QPR 1–2 Leicester