Leicester 1–2 QPR: Result & Stats | Championship

Leicester

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

QPR

B. Nelson 60'

S. Armstrong 57'

I. Chair 38'

3/2/2024

Championship · Round 35King Power Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Leicester40%

×Draw29%

QPR31%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LeicesterExpected goals in this matchQPR

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.02

Leicester

1.18

QPR

1.02

Leicester creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 28 away

1.18

creates per match

0.79

1.24

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Leicester

1.18

QPR

0.79

allows per match

Leicester

1.24

QPR

1.18

+0.62scores more than expected

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Leicester+0.62scores more

QPR+0.07on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Leicester ↓

QPR →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Leicester or draw

69%

Leicester or QPR

71%

Draw or QPR

60%

Winning margin

Leicester wins by 2+

17%

QPR wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Leicester 1+ goals

69%

Leicester 2+ goals

33%

Leicester 3+ goals

12%

QPR 1+ goals

64%

QPR 2+ goals

27%

QPR 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Leicester (draw refunded)

56%

QPR (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Leicester at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.24 · 15 matches

QPR away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.18 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Leicester attack 1.18 + QPR defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.18

QPR attack 0.79 + Leicester defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Leicester scores more

40%

level

29%

QPR scores more

31%

Leicester at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Leicester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

B. Nelson

Leicester · D

7.9

Match Events

16'

38'

43'

54'

56'

S. Armstrong← L. Dykes

56'

P. Smyth← L. Andersen

57'

S. Armstrong↳ S. Field

60'

B. Nelson

61'

J. Vardy← P. Daka

73'

78'

84'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LeicesterQPR

Overview

74%Possession26%

18Total Shots3

0.97Expected Goals (xG)0.99

9Corners0

7Fouls11

Shots

18Total Shots3

5On Target2

6Off Target1

7Blocked0

10Inside Box3

8Outside Box0

Passing

74%Possession26%

708Total Passes254

624Accurate Passes185

88%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

7Fouls11

2Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1

Leicester 1 – 2 QPR

QPR beat Leicester 2-1 in Championship on March 2, 2024.

Goals: I. Chair (38'), S. Armstrong (57'), B. Nelson (60').

Leicester controlled possession (74%) and registered 18 shots to 3.

The match was played at King Power Stadium in Leicester, Leicestershire.

Leicester vs QPR — Championship 2025

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Leicester 1 – 2 QPR